Main description:

This provocative new book posits how the tacit principle of "willful ignorance" has led to a deep divide between qualitative and quantitative modes of research that will increasingly constrain scientific progress unless bridged by a broadened conception of statistical methodology. It presents numerous examples, both hypothetical and real, to illustrate and support the main premise; offers a non-technical, historical survey of core statistical concepts; and speculates about the future evolution of statistics. Clinicians will find this book to be of particular interest, as will others interested in observational statistics.

Contents:

PREFACE xi ACKNOWLEDGMENTS xv 1 THE OPPOSITE OF CERTAINTY 1 Two Dead Ends 2 Analytical Engines 4 What is Probability? 6 Uncertainty 9 Willful Ignorance 12 Toward a New Science 15 2 A QUIET REVOLUTION 19 Thinking the Unthinkable 21 Inventing Probability 24 Statistics 27 The Taming of Chance 31 The Ignorance Fallacy 34 The Dilemma of Science 35 3 A MATTER OF CHANCE 41 Origins 43 Probability 44 The Famous Correspondence 56 What Did Not Happen Next 60 AgainstThe Odds 64 4 HARDLY TOUCHED UPON 71 The Mathematics of Chance 73 Empirical Frequencies 82 A Quantum of Certainty 100 5 A MATHEMATICIAN OF BASEL 114 Publication at Last 116 The Art of Conjecturing 117 A Tragic Ending 142 6 A DEFECT OF CHARACTER 147 Man Without a Country 150 A Fraction of Chances 165 7 CLASSICAL PROBABILITY 171 Revolutionary Reverends 173 From Chances to Probability 194 8 BABEL 213 The Great Unraveling 216 Probability as a Relative Frequency 219 Probability as a Logical Relationship 228 Probability as a Subjective Assessment 239 Probability as a Propensity 247 9 PROBABILITY AND REALITY 253 The Razor s Edge 255 What Fisher Knew 257 What Reference Class? 262 A Postulate of Ignorance 270 Laplace s Error 279 10 THE DECISION FACTORY 283 Beyond Moral Certainty 284 Decisions, Decisions 298 Machine-Made Knowledge 309 11 THE LOTTERY IN SCIENCE 312 Scientific Progress 313 Fooled by Causality 319 Statistics for Humans: Bias or Ambiguity? 331 Regression toward the Mean 339 12 TRUST, BUT VERIFY 346 A New Problem 347 Trust, 354 But Verify 357 The Future 363 Mindful Ignorance 368 APPENDIX: THE PASCAL FERMAT CORRESPONDENCE OF 1654 373 NOTES 387 BIBLIOGRAPHY 415 INDEX 429